Mathematical modelling to interpret disease transmissions in Sri Lanka

By Naleen Ganegoda (e-mail : naleen_cg@yahoo.com)
Department of Mathematics, University of Sri Jayewardenepura

Most recent approach regarding mathematical modelling in Sri Lanka is developing a model for the transmission of Lymphatic Filariasis (Barawa). It will cover three major aspects as ;

• Measures to determine epidemiological situation of an endemic area
• Mathematical approaches to describe parasite dynamics
• Transmission and resurgence potential after Mass Drug Administration

The Anti-Filaria Campaign of Sri Lanka will provide data for this modelling work. Vector Control Research Centre of India has agreed to provide assistance after considering the project proposal in this regard. This institute is one of the main researching bodies where World Health Organisation frequently collaborates with them.

Mathematical modelling is an effective tool in analysing the transmission of diseases. It paves the way for predicting the future impacts based on many epidemiological and immunological facts. There are two types of models used namely deterministic and stochastic. Deterministic models usually based on fundamental characteristics relevant to the disease and numbers of susceptible and infected are important variables while in stochastic models individual characteristics are taken into account.

Mathematical modelling will add more momentum to country’s research interests and it provides an opportunity to use scientific findings in decision making of administrative bodies.

Use of biofuel in India - from jatropha plant and sugrcane molasses

Sri Lanka can also adopt recent policy initiative from India to use biofuels. India has approved a national biofuel policy that states that by 2017, transport fuels in India need to contain 20 per cent biofuel, according to T V Padma of scidev.net.

Two main types of biofuels are envisaged: alcohol from plant wastes, chiefly sugarcane molasses, and biodiesel — oil produced from non-edible oilseed crops such as jatropha curcas, which can be blended with diesel.

The policy supports increasing biodiesel plantations on community, government-owned and forest wastelands, but not on fertile, irrigated lands. The government estimates 13.4 million hectares of barren land are available for jatropha cultivation, which could potentially yield 15 million tonnes of oil each year.

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